Liberal government survives confidence vote

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau survived his first confidence vote of the fall sitting on Wednesday.

Members of Parliament voted on Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s attempt to bring down the Liberal government after question period, and the non-confidence motion was defeated 211-120.

As expected after a testy Tuesday debate and an acrimonious exchange of accusations in the House heading into the vote, the parties that hold the balance of power in this minority Parliament – the Bloc Quebecois and NDP – backed the government, giving Trudeau the votes he needed to continue governing.

In voting down what Poilievre has framed as a choice “to give Canadians the carbon tax election they want,” NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet indicated they aren’t yet ready to help force Canadians into an early election, which polling indicates the Conservatives would likely win. 

With the outcome of the opposition motion all but expected in the hours leading up to it, political posturing ramped up over future tests of the Liberal minority government.

The next is poised to come before the end of the day, with the Liberals advancing a second motion that they’ve deemed a confidence vote, a “Ways and Means Motion” — essentially granting the government the approval to table a spending bill — connected to post-consultation changes to the capital gains policy.

This measure is tied to the Liberals’ last budget, and as it’s primarily a bill about collecting and spending Canadians’ money, it’s being treated as a matter of confidence. The government is expected to receive the votes it needs to see this policy advance.

Without the parliamentary pact that saw the NDP prop them up on confidence votes, the minority Liberals are set to face a series of further motions to bring them down in the days ahead.

So far, both Singh and Blanchet have indicated a desire to try to first leverage their votes for policy action before playing a part in toppling Trudeau.

Though on Wednesday morning, Blanchet essentially gave the government an ultimatum, and a one-month deadline to commit to his demands.

He said Trudeau has until Oct. 29 to agree to help pass and enact a pair of Bloc-originated bills — one regarding seniors’ pensions and the other involving supply management protections — or he’ll start talking to the other parties about taking Trudeau’s government down.

The legislation Blanchet wants the government to push through are Bill C-319 which proposes a 10 per cent increase to Old Age Security (OAS) payouts for seniors ages 65 to 74, and Bill C-282, which seeks to protect dairy, egg and poultry farmers in future trade talks.

When asked by reporters on Tuesday what he makes of Blanchet’s deadline, Health Minister Mark Holland said he’d prefer to focus on “policy conversations.”

“I think every proposal that’s made is something that is considered,” he said. “But I don’t think it’s helpful to issue ultimatums. I think that what is helpful is to demonstrate that Parliament is focused on Canadians and not politics.”

Yesterday, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said conversations were “ongoing” with both the Bloc and the NDP about their requests for policy action.

Today, Blanchet seemed to pour cold water on the state of those talks.

“It is a friendly specialty of the Liberals to say that they are having discussions and that everybody is their close friends,” he said on Wednesday. “So far there’s been very little discussions. And as you see, there’s not so much room for discussion.”

Another high-stakes vote may come early next week. The Liberals have assigned the Conservatives their second opposition day of the sitting this Thursday, with the vote scheduled for the following Tuesday.

Poilievre has given the House notice of a pair of potential motions he could present for debate. One quotes Singh and Blanchet and their respective criticisms of the Liberals. The other focuses on Poilievre’s central critiques of the government’s handling of housing, taxes, and crime.

And both include variations of wording indicating the House has lost confidence in the government.

Reacting to the looming questions, Government House Leader Karina Gould accused the Conservatives of “playing games.”

“I think it’s pretty lame that they’re going to put forward another non-confidence vote tomorrow, basically the same thing that they did just hours before,” Gould said. “But I think it shows the desperation of Mr. Poilievre.”

The Bloc and NDP will also have one opposition day each before the winter break.

When asked by reporters whether he thinks the Liberals will remain in power until next October’s fixed election date — even if they give in to the Bloc’s demands — Blanchet said he wouldn’t bet on it.

The flurry of motions and negotiations over support prompted longtime MP and Green Party Leader Elizabeth May to predict one way this could all play out.

“There will be jockeying for position, there will be trading, there will be bribes, and there will be offers to be bribed, and it will continue until after the next budget,” May said.

“And then the question is, depending on which party benefits the most or perceives they’ve benefited the most from the next budget, the budget will succeed or fail.”

In the meantime, she expects “more time-wasting motions.”

While the political drama has seized Parliament Hill, whether it could turn the dial on Canadians’ desire for an election is another question.

“It’s, I think, reasonable to presume that Canadians are not watching every twist and every turn of question period and every non-confidence motion that’s being brought on a daily basis,” said Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute.

Kurl said the appetite for an election varies depending on where on the political spectrum voters position themselves.

“There are a lot of things that people in this country would rather be doing than going to the polls earlier than they think is necessary,” she said.

Asked whether a series of confidence votes could have a compounding effect, Kurl said it could go two ways.

“You could see more votes starting to have an effect on Canadians, where they they’re thinking more seriously about it [an election.] But the opposite side to that is there could be a tune-out factor,” she said.

“The more this becomes normalized, you know, the first one everybody’s watching what’ll happen… once we get to the seventh one or the eighth one, I think, you know, what’s happening in the NHL season may be a little bit more of interest to Canadians.” 

With files from CTV News’ Spencer Van Dyk